Hoping for guaranteed success seems reasonable yet irrational.

Reasonable because people love certainty. Even if believing in and relying on certainty is irrational, people desire it. This is probably part of the equation that spits out the desire of: “If I was guaranteed success, then I’d do xyz.” This "xyz” encompassing various occupations like being a writer, an investor, an entrepreneur, etc…

Now, I could say, “What’s the point in doing something you were guaranteed to succeed in?” I can make the theoretical argument that it’s about the journey and surprises (both good and bad) that make it all the more worthwhile. But I would be lying if I hadn’t sat down with my head in my hands thinking Oh god I have the confidence but I still pray this shit works.

But that seems to be the point. To be honest about what is actually under one’s control and what isn’t. To be honest about possible outcomes and how it aligns with the individual’s own risk parameters. Reversing the common exercise of “What would do if you knew you wouldn’t fail?” to “What would you do even knowing you could fail?” It’s the more reasonable question to ask since the likelihood of succeeding at anything extraordinary is very low. That’s why it’s extraordinary. That must be why it’s stopping someone from doing it without a guarantee of success in the first place right?

It’s impossible to ever predict if one will succeed at this chosen dream endeavour. The most one can hope for is to control the self and not give up. Do the utmost one can to survive till the bitter end where one perishes because life gave out while one was pursuing this goal.

“The chief task in life is simply this: to identify and separate matters so that I can say clearly to myself which are externals not under my control, and which have to do with the choices I actually control. Where then do I look for good and evil? Not to uncontrollable externals, but within myself to the choices that are my own…” - Epictetus

The only thing that seems to be within our control, that we could guarantee….or rather ‘strive’ to guarantee ourselves seems to be our discipline in not giving up. There’s a lot implicit in not giving up and that ultimately means surviving till the end.

This doesn’t mean doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. As Einstein said, that would be insane. But to not give up and iterate constantly from the unending feedback one would earn from not giving up.

It seems the reasonable path is to try and guarantee the self to not quit whilst pursuing an endeavour worth pursuing even if it is likely one should fail. If one doesn’t give up, I’m inclined to believe the results will either be success or die trying. Neither seems so bad and of course, I can’t guarantee anything,.. it’s a belief.